Trump can win most, maybe even all, of Mitt Romney’s 2012 states, but after that his options shrink. North Carolina will be a headache for him, and if he loses by more than 8 points nationally, other reliably Republican states will be competitive.

Florida is a swing state most years, but Trump could see noteworthy defections in affluent areas on both coasts, and the Sunshine State’s growing Hispanic population will be a problem for him given his comments about Hispanics and immigration, as well as his mocking of Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush.

Colorado looks close to impossible for Trump given the state’s politically powerful upscale suburban GOP voters and its conservatives, many of whom won’t find him to their liking. The state’s large Hispanic population is an additional problem for Trump.

Virginia also looks like another hill too high to climb for Trump, considering the growing power of Northern Virginia, the kind of territory where Trump is weakest in his own party.

Can Trump peel off Pennsylvania or Nevada? Maybe, but that would not be enough. Michigan? Even New York, as he says? Don’t be silly. Even raising New York as a possible Trump state is delusional given its demographic and partisan make-up.