The regime already has the mechanisms of governance, however imperfect, under its control, and so there would not be the same level of chaos following the war as there was in Iraq.

The primary risk with this scenario is to America’s reputation as an enduring partner of the Gulf monarchies and Turkey. In the most extreme case, Turkey might even withdraw from NATO.

However, based upon Turkey’s recent turn towards authoritarianism under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, NATO might be better for the loss. (A crisis might also encourage the remaining members to pay their membership fees.)

Many critics will also claim that this policy would strengthen Iranian and Russian power in the region. However, while both these nations would like to see the Assad regime remain in power, the increased U.S. influence over Syria would not be viewed with favor by either Putin or the Ayatollahs. In the long run, the U.S. has more to offer Syria than they do.