“That all makes sense, but I remember everyone telling me that Trump couldn’t win the Republican nomination, and he did. Why can’t he do the same thing in the national election?”
Well not everyone said he couldn’t win! But the Republican electorate is not like the rest of America. According to the most recent, YouGov/Economist poll, Trump has a 62 percent favorability rating among Republicans.
But among Democrats, he’s as popular as a mosquito at a nudist’s colony. Trump has a “very unfavorable” rating of 73 percent. Only 9 percent view him “somewhat unfavorably.” Among independents, 49 percent have a “very unfavorable’’ view; only 11 percent fall into the “somewhat unfavorable” category. So it’s not that non-Republican voters don’t like Trump — they can’t stand him. And they’ve felt this way about him for the entire campaign.
Even many Republicans don’t like Trump. His unfavorable rating is 37 percent, which includes a 21 percent “very unfavorable’’ rating. This might be his biggest problem. If a sizable chunk of Republicans stay home or even vote for Clinton — and it could be as little as 15 percent — he’s got no shot.