According to fresh data from the Harvard Institute of Politics’ semi-annual study of young voters, 61 percent of young voters say they’d prefer Democrats hold the White House, against just 33 percent for Republicans, a 28-point advantage. And when Clinton is pitted against Trump by name, her lead widens to 36 points.
For context, a 36 point loss among voters under thirty would be slightly worse than John McCain performed against Barack Obama in 2008.
Republicans who have talked themselves into the prospect of a Trump nomination on the grounds that Trump will run up the score with older, working-class white voters are playing with mathematical fire. In 2012, Mitt Romney won voters over the age of 30, but lost the under-30 demographic by such a large margin that he lost the White House. Facing youth vote numbers like these, Trump will have to win extraordinary numbers of middle-age and senior voters to have a fighting chance.
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