Cracks in Cruz-Kasich alliance

Kasich scrapped an event in Indiana slated for Tuesday, but is still planning on attending a fundraiser in the state. Their campaign staffs struck the deal; the two candidates have not spoken directly to one another about the strategy and don’t have plans to do so. There is not a binding contract either, of course, so each candidate could step away at his convenience…

The announcement of the alliance seems to suggest Cruz was concerned about his chances in the Hoosier State. Three polls last week found Trump leading the field by an average of six points. Cruz would easily close that gap if he won all of Kasich’s voters. But the math isn’t quite that simple. Some of Kasich’s voters might go to Trump and others might stay home. Also, some Kasich supporters might have already cast their ballots for him – early voting started on April 5.

But perhaps most importantly, if Kasich fails to coordinate effectively with Cruz (for example, if Kasich continues to tell Indiana constituents to vote for him despite saying he’s pulled out of the Indiana primary), it could confuse voters and make strategic voting more difficult. And while this alliance might be designed to more effectively marshal outside resources for both campaigns, the success of the partnership will ultimately hinge on whether enough voters coalesce around Cruz.