“Trump is a wildcard and nobody wants their future tied to a wildcard,” said a Republican consultant working with several statewide campaigns in 2016.
Although Trump has argued that he would turn out millions of new voters for Republicans, no recent polls today show that happening. The most glaring sign of trouble for Republican delegates weighing support for Trump or Cruz at a potentially contested convention are multiple polls that not only show Trump losing to Hillary Clinton in key states, but potentially hurting other Republicans on the ticket in the process.
The Elway Poll in Washington State showed a -36 point effect for anyone on the ballot who endorsed Trump, including the state’s four Republican House members. Cruz’s -24 point effect was bad, but at least better than Trump’s.
In North Carolina, the latest PPP poll shows Clinton narrowly beating both Trump and Cruz. But of much more concern to North Carolina Republicans is the fact that 48% of voters say they’d be less likely to vote for incumbent Sen. Richard Burr if he endorses Trump, compared to 22% who said they’d be more likely to support Burr. The PPP polling memo calls the 26-point hit “a good early indicator of the trouble Trump poses for his party,” and notes that Cruz has an 11-point edge over Trump among Republicans.