The anti-Trump thinking behind Kasich continuing his campaign after he won Ohio on March 15 and the rest of the field cleared out was twofold. First, he’s incredibly stubborn and wanted to stay in, so it was the only option. Second, the Northeast is hardly Cruz territory, in part because the Cruz campaign casts the region’s hub as home to god-stabbing gay abortionists as part of its (effective) heartland messaging. So the plan was to divvy up the work: Cruz would serve as the anti-Trump alternative between the coasts—a role he has so far successfully filled—Kasich would be the anti-Trump vehicle for Northeastern hedonists, and then they could figure out the complex California situation later. Kasich hasn’t been able to take care of his end.

The Ohio governor is doing better than Cruz in Northeastern states, just not by enough. Kasich may be a better regional fit than Cruz, but he’s also not as strong of a presidential candidate. At this point, it’s still useful on net for Kasich to stay in just to help keep Trump below various 50-percent thresholds. But the split field makes it nearly impossible for Trump to lose much of anything in the region. The only anti-Trump strategy that genuinely would have helped in the Northeast would have been for Kasich to appeal more to Republican primary voters from the beginning, and that just wasn’t happening.