Indiana, usually an afterthought in electoral politics, played an important role in the 2008 Democratic primary. The state could be a pivot point again this year. It has a date to itself on the primary calendar on May 3 and may end Trump’s winning streak as the Republican contest moves out of the Northeast. Just as important, it has an aggressive delegate allocation method, with 30 delegates awarded to the statewide winner and an additional 27 to the winners of each of nine congressional districts. After California, in fact, Indiana is probably the most important state remaining.

Last month, our panel gave Trump an average of 37 delegates in Indiana, which implied that he’s the favorite to win there. I don’t think I can agree with that after Wisconsin, however. The states are relatively similar demographically. In Indiana, as in Wisconsin, Trump doesn’t have much support from statewide elected officials. Moreover, the Midwest as a whole has been a middling region for Trump. Earlier in the calendar, he got away with some wins in the Midwest with a vote share in the mid-to-high 30s. Now that the field has winnowed and Republican voters have learned to vote tactically, he’ll often need 40 percent of the vote to win a state instead.

Still, some caution is in order. There’s been no polling at all in Indiana. Perhaps Trump can hope that his momentum from April 26 will carry him to victory, or that Kasich will drain a few votes from Cruz in counties that border Ohio. My deterministic projection has Trump losing — although salvaging a few congressional districts — while the probabilistic one is more equivocal. The path-to-1,237 projection has Trump winning, almost out of necessity, because it will be hard for him to carve out a path to 1,237 delegates without the Hoosier State. Revised Trump delegate projections: deterministic 9; probabilistic 22; path-to-1,237 48.