Indiana Republicans haven’t experienced a competitive presidential primary in decades, and the only public polling that exists for 2016 is several weeks old (the state doesn’t register by party, any voter can participate in the GOP primary). So it’s hard to predict how this campaign might unfold. Experienced GOP operatives in the state with access to private data say Trump is maintaining his months-long position, with support of about 30-35 percent of likely primary voters.

Kasich’s numbers are rising and he could compete for delegates. But the governor trails Cruz, whose uptick is more robust. There is a palpable sense that support for the senator is growing, and he presents the bigger threat to Trump.

“There really is movement to Cruz, that is very clear,” said a GOP strategist in Indiana, requesting anonymously because his clients had not authorized him to speak publicly on the race. “There has been no movement for Trump.”

Indiana is regionally and, within the context of the spectrum of traditional Republican voters, demographically diverse.