Here’s my bet: Anyone who’s handed the prize will, in the end, be accepted, by enough party members. A majority of Republicans already think it’d be wrong to deny Trump the nomination. But will they walk if he’s denied the nomination? The most hardcore Trumpists certainly will. But the vast majority of Republicans won’t. They’ll swallow hard and vote for a GOP nominee who they vastly prefer to Hillary Clinton.

If I’m a Cruz voter, I get my guy in the VP slot and I deal. If I’m a Trump voter, I stay home or I unleash a tweet storm or I shout in the street with a sandwich board, but I don’t start a third party (because third parties are for losers). The neither-Trump-nor-Cruz scenario offers the potential for great novelty and deep outrage. But barring some exogenous shock, it will not create a GOP nervous breakdown.

But make no mistake: If somebody not named Trump or Cruz somehow heads up the ticket, the most despised wing of the Republican Party — the Karl Rove wing — will suddenly have a new chance to wield real political power.