As for the Midwest, Kasich’s supposed stronghold? Outside of Ohio, seven Midwestern states have voted including Wisconsin, and he has done no better than third –losing by an average of 26 points. He was supposed to win in Michigan, but lost to both Donald Trump and Cruz.
Not only has Kasich done poorly in the states that have voted to date, looking at the primary calendar going forward, there’s no state that he has a clear edge.
Kasich’s theoretical hope is that he can capture the nomination in a contested convention, because he has done well in hypothetical general election polls against Hillary Clinton.
The problem is that theoretical general election matchups don’t matter if a candidate cannot unify his own party. And it’s hard to see how Kasich unifies the party if the convention rejects the candidates who end up capturing roughly 80 percent of the delegates in favor of a fringe candidate who got crushed nearly everywhere.