Consider, first of all, what it would take to make a Ryan nomination logistically happen. Ryan’s allies would have to begin quietly courting Republican delegates all over the country, simultaneously planting the idea in their heads and promising them wonderful things for going along with the plan—all while keeping anyone from divulging the secret, lest Ryan be called out as an obvious liar.
Then, at the convention, both the first and second ballots would have to flame out. If Trump failed to get a majority on the first ballot, that would free up only about 57 percent of the delegates, meaning 43 percent would still be committed to a candidate. The second round of voting would therefore still favor Trump or Cruz, both of whom would have also promised supporters wonderful things, and maybe, in Trump’s case, even cash, which, according to Bloomberg’s Sasha Issenberg, is not illegal.
Things would therefore have to go to a third round, and any defection to Ryan would have to contend with howls of protest not just from Trump, Cruz, and John Kasich, but also from a huge chorus within the Republican establishment, including Senator Lindsey Graham, who has denounced those who “want to drop in their favorite candidate and then try to stifle the will of the people.” In sum, securing a Ryan nomination would be a costly challenge for even a cunning and brilliant establishment, let alone a bumbling and dimwitted one.
But let’s put aside the feasibility of it and assume that Ryan could secure the nomination. Why would he realistically want it?
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