Bernie's math: Not impossible, but improbable

A POLITICO analysis underscores Sanders’ challenge: Even after runaway victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington this week – he still trails Clinton by between 200 and 250 pledged delegates, pending final tallies from this week’s races. And while Wisconsin’s April 5 primary and Wyoming’s April 9 caucuses seem well-suited for the Vermont senator, the Democrats’ proportional delegate-allocation rules limit the extent to which he can eat into Clinton’s advantage.

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Looking forward past the next two weeks, he currently trails Clinton in public polling in the four largest states left on the calendar: California, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. With the exception of his win in Michigan earlier this month, Sanders hasn’t yet demonstrated he can win large states like these – let alone by the wide margins he’ll need to close the pledged-delegate gap.

Another problem for Sanders: He has excelled in caucus states – winning 10 of 12 (including the last 10 consecutively). But most of the states left to come are holding primaries, including a number of contests only open to registered Democrats.

And Clinton has another insurance policy: the more than 700 so-called “superdelegates” who can support the candidate of their choosing on the convention floor, regardless of the primary or caucus results in their home states.

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