Trump will have a hard time turning blue states red in November

This calculation makes it clearer that Trump’s strengths are mostly in the South. Of Trump’s top seven states so far by his share of the combined primary or caucus vote, five or six are in the South, depending on how you classify Missouri.

New England looks like a poor region for Trump, by contrast. His share of the combined primary or caucus vote was slightly below his national average in Massachusetts and New Hampshire and well behind it in Vermont and Maine.

The industrial Midwest has been about average for Trump. The Ohio result, as I mentioned, is better for Trump once you consider the very high Republican turnout there (and that he lost to the state’s governor). But his performances in Michigan and Illinois rate as middling by this metric even though Trump won both states. The Great Plains states have been a poor region for Trump, while the West has been a mixed bag. Trump’s big win in Nevada is less impressive once you consider that Democratic turnout outpaced GOP turnout. But his results from Arizona hold up well.