Polls show both Clinton and Trump are broadly disliked and polarizing candidates who could depress turnout on either side. But history shows voters are likely, after two terms of a Democrat in office, to vote Republican. Moreover, Clinton represents the past, the withering establishment voters are soundly rejecting in an insurgent year. Toxic he may be, but Trump is the agent of change.

In the 32 primaries and caucuses thus far, Trump has boosted turnout significantly. While most analyses (see Nate Silver) show an increase in primary voting as merely a reflection of a competitive primary and not predictive of numbers in a general election, a Bloomberg study of primary turnout shows such surges could help Trump in battleground states this fall.

For example, Mahoning County in Ohio saw turnout spike by 125 percent last week compared with 2012, with Trump crushing John Kasich 50.6 percent to 37.4 percent. In 2012, Obama’s campaign registered more than 200,000 new African-American voters in Ohio, without whom he would have lost the state to Romney. It’s not just a numbers game but knowing where to run the numbers up.

Certainly there is a multitude of data to suggest that this steep climb is impossible: As the white share of the vote continues to decline each cycle, -RealClearPolitics estimates the next GOP nominee will have to win 64 percent of the white vote and 30 percent of the nonwhite vote to prevail. Romney won 59 percent and lost. And whites with college degrees turned out more than whites without them, 80 percent compared with 57 percent, in 2012.