Assessing Trump's path to 1,237

For upcoming Northeastern primaries, we used the primary vote in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont as a marker. We averaged the three candidates’ vote percentages from those states, then took the remaining vote (for the withdrawn candidates) and apportioned 50% of it to Kasich and 25% to both Cruz and Trump, resulting in Trump 47.5%, Kasich 35.0%, and Cruz 17.5%. In part, this was to see what would happen if Trump fell short of a majority in primaries outside of his home state of New York. In Connecticut, we said Trump would win every congressional district, but that Kasich would pick up six delegates via the state’s proportional method for allocating statewide delegates. Next door in Rhode Island, the heavily proportional statewide and district delegates work out to Trump winning eight of the 19 delegates in the Ocean State. In New York, we figured that Trump would get a slight home-state bump to win a majority statewide, and we also gave him a majority in about half the state’s districts, keeping him under in 14 seats to give Kasich 14 delegates from the Empire State. In Delaware, any Trump plurality would earn him all 16 delegates, which we foresee as likely in the First State. And in Pennsylvania, Kasich may give Trump a run for his money and do better than 35%, but we still see Trump as a slight favorite to win the 17 statewide delegates up for grabs on April 26.

Moving to May, we again looked at individual district data to help forge a projection in Indiana. With Trump’s success in Kentucky and the Appalachian parts of lower Ohio, we see him having the edge in most of the state’s four more southern districts. We also think it’s possible he can win the First District as it holds some similarities to districts in Illinois where his delegates found success. We handed Kasich the highly-educated suburban Fifth District, as well as the Third, which borders northern Ohio, and we gave Cruz the Second and Fourth Districts. On May 10, West Virginia, could very likely wind up being a winner-take-all state for Trump, which is how we projected it in this scenario. Considering his success in other parts of the Great Plains, we gave Cruz the winner-take-all state of Nebraska that same day.