Still, as far as the Republican primaries are concerned, Utah might not predict much. The three states with the highest percentages of Mormons — Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming — have already voted. (Trump lost them all to Cruz.) The state with the fourth-highest percentage of Mormons is Arizona, now in the Trump column. The next two states, Alaska and Nevada, went for Cruz and Trump, respectively. In any event, the Mormon vote is not likely to be a huge factor in the remaining Republican contests.
So next is Wisconsin. With 42 delegates, it is a smaller prize than Arizona, but it is winner-take-all, and, perhaps more importantly, a state in which Republican #NeverTrump forces have promised to make a strong stand against their party’s frontrunner. (Wisconsin is also an open primary, a format which has been good for Trump in earlier contests.) At the moment, there’s no polling to go by. The most recent survey is one from Marquette University that finished on February 21 with the now-useless result of Trump leading Rubio by ten points.
After Wisconsin, the race, and the expected long battle between Trump and Cruz, stretches into early summer, with California, New Jersey, and a few other states finishing things up on June 7. Will there be some different dynamic at work in a slower race, compared to the breakneck speed of the early primaries and caucuses? We’re about to find out.