Black turnout and Democratic percentage are likely to fall, with the first black president off the ballot. Young voters’ aversion to Clinton, evident in Bernie Sander’s 80-plus percent among under-30s in exit polls, could sharply reduce Millennials’ Democratic margin. The proportion of seniors — a good demographic group for Trump — is rising as the baby boomers age.

If you use the RCP interactive tool and adjust 2012 black turnout down by 10 percent and white turnout up 3 percent, and further adjust the Democratic percentages down 4 points among blacks and up 3 points among whites, you come out with a Republican popular vote and Electoral College lead — even assuming the Republican does as badly with Hispanics and Asians as Romney did.

That would look more like the off-year electorates that gave Republicans 51 and 52 percent of popular votes for the House of Representatives in 2010 and 2012. It would look like an electorate expanded with the new voters predicted by the two candidates — Trump’s left-behind angry whites, Cruz’s evangelical Christians. Both groups have shown up disproportionately in Republican primaries and caucuses so far.

But you can expand the electorate all you want, and if you still have a product that 50 percent of the voters won’t buy, you lose the election. The addition of new voters might nudge Trump’s unfavorable numbers down to 60 percent. But that’s still a losing number, since Clinton seems to be holding nearly 90 percent of Democrats, although one-third don’t consider her honest or trustworthy.