If John Kasich were not still (pointlessly) in the race, Ted Cruz would likely walk away with all 98 delegates that will be awarded today. Based on the polling and the way that Ted Cruz has closed races lately, if he loses in winner-take-all Arizona, it will be close. Probably the margin will be way less than whatever John Kasich brings in.

Likewise in Utah, the polling indicates that Utah voters really dislike Donald Trump, and that Cruz is at or near the 50% threshold to take all the delegates from Utah. If not for Kasich’s presence in the race, Cruz would almost definitely walk away with all 40 of the delegates from Utah.

Even in this scenario, Ted Cruz would still face a very difficult uphill climb to reach 1,237 himself. However, the chances for a contested convention would be astronomically improved.

Instead, thanks to John Kasich, Donald Trump might well win some portion of the 98 delegates at issue today and move himself closer to the 1,237 mark, so that he will not have to face a contested convention.