If Trump does, in fact, get 1,208 delegates, he still might win on a first ballot. He would need only a fraction of the delegates that are currently unbound (or will be unbound) to reach 1,237.
Who exactly are these unbound or uncommitted delegates? Some, like the six from the Virgin Islands, were elected by voters to be “uncommitted,” but they may commit to a candidate closer to the convention. Others, like the 54 Pennsylvania district delegates, are automatically unbound and have been elected as unbound for decades (see: when Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan in the 1976 primary). These delegates are free to choose whichever candidate they want on all ballots.4 In addition, some delegates from candidates who have withdrawn from the race may become available to Trump, depending on the state’s rules. Although it’s hard to know Trump’s exact chance of getting 29 delegates from this group, Trump probably would have a decent shot at reaching 1,237.
All of the respondents agree that Trump is not likely to get close to 1,237 delegates before June 7, when California and four other states vote. The closest Trump came was 1,088 delegates. And even the most optimistic Trump projection has him hitting 1,244 after all the states have voted. That leaves Trump with very little room for error to reach a majority of delegates without at least some of the currently unpledged or uncommitted delegates coming to his aid.
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