Early voting is a big advantage for Donald Trump, who tends to do very poorly among late deciders in primaries. “That banking of votes early on does help Trump tremendously, no matter what happens,” Richard Herrara, a political-science professor at Arizona State University, told the New York Post Friday. “He’s probably got a pretty sizable lead, so he’s just got to hold on.”
That will be made easier by the fact that Marco Rubio was drawing 16 percent of the vote in Arizona, according to recent polls. Anyone who voted before last Wednesday didn’t know that Rubio would no longer be in the race. Any votes for Rubio will therefore be wasted and will increase Trump’s chances of sweeping all 58 delegates.
Once cast, early votes are like a non-refundable deposit on a hotel: They can’t be recovered. “Early voters often miss valuable debates and late-breaking news in campaigns,” former Arizona congressman John Shadegg told me. “But anyone who goes to sporting events knows you shouldn’t leave before the game ends, because surprises often happen.”
It’s time to reconsider the craze for early voting. In 35 states, people can vote early without having to give an excuse for missing Election Day. That’s up from 20 states a little more than a decade ago. Half the states also allow no-excuse absentee-ballot voting by mail. Oregon, Washington, and Colorado have abolished the traditional polling place; in those states almost everyone votes by mail. “In reality, the days of an actual election ‘day’ are long gone,” Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida and director of the United States Election Project, told the Los Angeles Times in September 2014. “It’s a solid election month, if not more in some places, and will continue to expand.”
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