Marco Rubio’s withdrawal from the presidential primary, after he was blown out in his home state by Donald Trump, was a resounding rejection by voters of a candidate embraced by influential Republicans. It suggests the power of party elites is overstated in the GOP, and perhaps in politics overall.

In some previous cycles, endorsements from key party figures had been a predictor of the eventual winner. In 2011 and 2012, even as his poll numbers were lackluster, Mitt Romney was the overwhelmingly leader in terms of endorsements from fellow Republicans, and he eventually won the nomination. It was not entirely clear if the endorsements directly pushed voters toward the establishment candidate or that endorsements were the most visible signal that a candidate was supported by major donors, operatives in key states and others who would help him win.

Many political scientists and prominent writers, most notably the data journalist Nate Silver, spent much of 2015 and early 2016 closely tracking endorsements, particularly from former and current elected officials and other power-brokers, as a clue to which candidate each “party” was behind. (I used this approach myself.)