It is very likely — very likely — that neither Donald Trump nor Ted Cruz will secure half of the delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination until the very last day of the election. And this is the part that I’m reticent to share: That last day is in June.
June 7, specifically — just less than a year after Trump (then averaging about 4 percent in the polls) rode down the goldish escalator at Trump Tower and started complaining about Mexico. On June 7, more than 350 days after that announcement, voters will go to the polls in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota — but people will only be paying attention to the fifth state that’s voting, California. In California, 172 delegates will be at stake, nearly 14 percent of what a candidate needs in order to gain a majority. And just to make things dramatic, nearly all of those 172 delegates will be distributed to the winners of each of the state’s 53 congressional districts.
Meaning that when polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern on June 7, we will likely be tracking 53 individual elections in order to figure out if Trump or Cruz hit the 1,237 mark. So that’s something to look forward to.