1. Europe’s center of power just shifted across the Bosphorus

Sundays’ defeat puts Merkel, and other European leaders, more than ever at the mercy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

EU leaders are due to meet with Turkey later this week to hash out a refugee deal that Berlin sees as Merkel’s last best hope to bring the crisis under control before it opens up further divisions in Europe. With thousands of refugees stranded in a make-shift camp on Greece’s border with Macedonia and more on the way, Europe can’t afford to let the Turkish deal collapse.

Ankara knows Merkel is desperate and is already asking a high price to take the problem off the EU’s hands: the acceleration of its EU membership talks; visa liberalization for Turkish citizens; and billions more in aid. Merkel has been courting the Turks for months, arguing that Turkey is the linchpin to any realistic solution.

Erdoğan, well aware that Merkel is isolated in Europe and losing influence at home, can be expected to exploit her weakness to drive a hard bargain.