If 2016 were like previous elections, Rubio and Kasich would be neck and neck in the delegate count and ready to give Hillary Clinton tough competition in the general election. But 2016 is not like previous elections. It features a black swan in the form of Donald Trump, the celebrity real estate mogul who is taking over the Republican party, and whose rise is evidence of a powerful anti-Washington sentiment among GOP voters. So the race isn’t between Rubio and Kasich. It’s between Trump and his closest rival, Ted Cruz, who is disliked by his Senate colleagues and alienated most of Washington when he shut down the government in the fall of 2013.

I doubt either Trump or Cruz is likely to win in November. But in recent days I have encountered the opinion, especially among liberals, that there is no difference between the two candidates. And this is a ridiculous idea. Cruz would make a much better president than Trump. It shouldn’t be hard to see why.

For one thing, Cruz actually knows what he’s talking about. If you listened to Trump during the CNN debate, you heard little in the way of policy detail. His answers begin with a few words describing how angry people are and how China is taking our jobs before ending with a demand that we negotiate better deals. Trump is full of bluster, often funny and impolitic. He’s a great communicator because he reaches peoples’ deepest emotions. But to call him “articulate” would be an exaggeration, and to call him a “wonk” would be delusional. You might not like Cruz’s policies or the manner in which he communicates them, but there’s no question he has firm convictions, a grasp of detail, and knows how to make an argument.