If Donald Trump comes into Cleveland with a plurality, then it’s likely that only he and Ted Cruz will have won majorities in at least eight states. So far, Trump has won delegate majorities in seven states — South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Hawaii, and Mississippi. Cruz has four — Texas, Kansas, Maine and Idaho.

Kasich, of course, has none, and Rubio has a majority from no states but does have Puerto Rico. The remaining 14 states likely to give a majority to one candidate are: Illinois, California, Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Nebraska, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. Neither Kasich nor Rubio is likely to win any of the latter six states. Rubio is also not going to win Ohio, and Kasich is not going to win Florida. That means that one of them either has to win a majority in each of the first six states on the above list, or get to eight through majorities in far-flung territories like the Northern Marianas. That’s a tall order.

So, if the party operates under the 2012 rules, there’s a real likelihood that only Trump and Cruz get their names placed in nomination, and only Trump and Cruz delegates get to vote. If that happens, whichever of those two has more delegates will win a majority of the delegates entitled to vote, and will then press the case that, under the rules, he is the rightful nominee.