If voters do change their minds- especially supporters of Cruz and Rubio who appear to have little chance of being competitive in the state- Kasich is likely to be the beneficiary. Kasich leads Trump 55/40 if voters had to choose just between the two of them. Rubio voters move to Kasich 75/16 over Trump, Cruz voters do so 69/25, and undecideds would pick him 54/11 if Kasich and Trump ended up being the two candidates they chose between. Kasich is also by far the most broadly popular of the candidates in Ohio with a 70/22 favorability rating- only Trump at 48/44 is also on positive ground among the remaining candidates. If more strategic voting happens in the next week, Kasich is likely to be the beneficiary.
Kasich leads Trump with both moderates (43/39) and ‘somewhat conservative’ (39/36) voters. Trump is ahead because he has 40% with ‘very conservative’ voters to 25% for Cruz with Kasich coming in third at 23%. There’s also a gender split in the race with Kasich up 36/33 among women but Trump making up for it with a 42/34 advantage among men.
The bottom has really fallen out on Marco Rubio’s image. For much of the year he’s been among the best liked of the Republican candidates, even if he wasn’t voters’ first choice. Now he’s the least popular candidate, with only 33% of voters seeing him favorable to 51% who have an unfavorable opinion. Even when you combine first and second choices Rubio’s still in a distant last place with 22% to 55% for Kasich, 46% for Trump, and 28% for Cruz.
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