There are a number of mostly-white states in the Northeast and Midwest to which Democrats are clinging, even as white voters have turned increasingly against them over the past few election cycles.
Polls show working-class whites could be a boon to Trump in some key states – assuming a two-way race between Trump and Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee. If a credible third-party candidate emerged – whether a moderate or a conservative – that would scramble the math considerably.
In a two-candidate race, which battleground states could trend towards Trump? Overwhelmingly white states like Iowa (93 percent of 2012 voters were white in 2012, according to exit polls), New Hampshire (93 percent), Ohio (79 percent), Pennsylvania (78 percent) and Wisconsin (86 percent) top the list. Some, like Ohio, are traditional battlegrounds. Others, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, have voted Democratic for decades at the presidential level.
A University of New Hampshire poll out this week shows Clinton with an 8-point lead over Trump in a hypothetical matchup – but there are some warning signs for Clinton. She trails Trump by about 15 points among non-college voters, a group Barack Obama won by 2 points four years ago.