Why Louisiana tells us the most about Trump

Trump finished on the low end of his March polling, with a shade more than 41 percent of the vote, while Cruz overperformed even the high end at better than 37 percent.

If there was any sign that an anti-Trump vote is coming together, we saw it in Louisiana.

There are still some questions we don’t know the answer to. Is this a real surge by Cruz or strategic anti-Trump voting that could later manifest itself in votes for Rubio in Florida or John Kasich in Michigan and Ohio? Does Trump have a closed state problem? He’s mostly won in states where independents and even Democrats can vote (though unlike John McCain in 2000, he’s had plurality support among self-described Republicans in exit polls in most of the places he’s won). Can Louisiana be replicated in Mississippi?

Trump’s subdued tone in his Super Saturday press conference and decision to call attention to Rubio’s poor performance suggests he suspects something is amiss.