Ted Cruz’s good night comes with an important asterisk

And as we noted late Saturday night, Cruz’s performance will also likely give him a shot in the arm. That goes double because he appears to have done very well among Louisianans who actually voted Saturday — versus early voters.

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But let’s not confuse what Cruz has done so far with winning big states that portend future success. Cruz, to his credit, won Iowa. Since then, he has won a few small and less-emphasized caucuses. And he has won his home state of Texas and a neighbor with which it shares many of the same qualities, Oklahoma. Even his late but unsuccessful surge Saturday came in Louisiana — another state that borders Texas.

The difference between Cruz and Santorum/Huckabee, at least so far, is that they are winning different parts of the South. Indeed, if anything, Santorum and Huckabee were better Southern candidates than Cruz is, carrying three and two Deep South states, respectively. Cruz has lost all four Deep South states that have voted so far.

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