The race for the Republican nomination is going to the convention. It must sound strange to hear that — given that this perennial contingency never gets past political-nerd fan fiction. It certainly feels strange to write it. But that’s where we’re headed. While the networks will quickly declare Trump the winner tonight in most (if not all) Super Tuesday states, the math is plain to see. At the current trajectory, no one — not Trump, not Rubio, not Cruz — will secure the necessary delegates to win the nomination outright. Nor, given the calculus, does anyone have any incentive to drop out. The very Mexican standoff that has enabled Trump thus far is likely to trigger a convention-floor failsafe. Somewhere John Nash is smiling.
Sure, things could change. Every candidate could internalize the drumbeat of news declaring Trump unstoppable and inevitable and simply roll over. The candidates could pull back from the nascent Trump onslaught and return exclusively to internecine warfare amongst themselves. Trump’s rumored decision to boycott future debates could be the most successful Jedi mind trick of all time. But amidst the #NeverTrump sentiments mobilizing online and the third-party barrage about to be unleashed on the Donald on airwaves across the country, that all seems unlikely. The incentives for the not-Trump candidates to stay in the race actually increase as time goes on provided the campaigns can marshal the resources to do so.
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