But it would be a mistake to see Trump’s anti-immigrant message as appealing only to whites. The fact that Trump won the lion’s share of Hispanic Republicans in Nevada against two Latino candidates should alter some presumptions and does not bode well for Cruz and Rubio. One possible overlooked factor: A majority of Latinos, in contrast to their open-borders-minded leadership, according to some surveys, already believe overall immigration levels are too high. What seems like racism to college professors and journalists might seem more like economic salvation to struggling families, even ones with roots in Latin America.

Still, overall, the Republican race is about white voters. Take Harris County, Texas’ largest county, Ted Cruz’s home and among the most diverse places in the country. One Republican consultant notes that Hispanic voters in Harris County are more than four times as likely to vote in a Democratic primary than in a Republican contest, while African Americans in the county are more than 18 times as likely to vote in a Democratic contest. Cruz may win the state Tuesday, but it will be largely because he appeals to hard-right and evangelical voters.

Political insiders suspect Trump could pull an upset in Texas, one consultant suggested, because “we have a lot of lower-middle-class angry voters.” A Trump victory in the Lone Star State would effectively end Cruz’s campaign. At the very least, since delegates are assigned proportionally, Trump will leave Cruz’s home state with a rich harvest of delegates.