Like Rubio, she will have to double down on mechanical proficiency, trying to lug along an uncertain base. Like Rubio, she will have to present “same old same old” as the greatest thing since sliced bread, acting as if the slightest and most cosmetic of updates represent bold leaps into a new era.

But unlike Rubio, Clinton is an old campaigner and not a good one. She blows leads, she gets boring, she disconnects. All the Republicans have to do is prevent a total meltdown in Cleveland to be competitive.

Still, there’s something incredibly sinister about an election cycle wherein the strongest simultaneous popular insurgencies in living memory might culminate in both parties nominating the candidates who are least representative of the insurgents. The frustration and fury on the right and the left, especially among politically active younger voters, is not a fad. Even on the left, it cannot just be flattered and scattered. If Clinton faces a ticket that can offer even one significant policy connecting up with today’s widespread anger and responding to it, polling suggests that once again she will follow a string of convincing victories with eventual defeat.