Trump has clinched nothing

In the field of Republicans running in 2016, however, Trump is the least popular. In a Suffolk University poll taken between Feb. 11 and 15, only 9 percent of Republicans named Trump as their second choice. That was the lowest number among the six candidates listed, including Jeb Bush. Trump did slightly better in an NBC/Journal survey conducted between Feb. 14 and 16, earning the second choices of 12 percent of Republicans. But that was still the worst performance among the five candidates who are still in the race today. In a Feb. 15 to 17 Fox News poll, 11 percent of Republicans named Trump as their second choice, compared to 27 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio, and 20 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz.

But Trump’s bigger problem is that, unlike McCain, he has already lost the votes of too many Republicans, not just in the primaries but in the general election. McCain didn’t just have high levels of support within the party. He also engendered the least resistance. In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll taken between Jan. 20 and 22, 2008, just after his victory in South Carolina, 9 percent of Republicans said that if McCain were nominated, they wouldn’t vote for him in the general election. Another 12 percent said they would withhold judgment until the Democratic nominee was selected. On both of these measures, McCain posted the least negative scores among the five Republicans listed.