The central question in the Republican universe today seems to be, “Is Donald Trump now inevitable?” Following Trump’s decisive win in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, Jeb Bush suspended his campaign, leaving only three-and-a-half viable Republican candidates in the race. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the half, and Ben Carson should be discounted. Remember, “to thine own self be true.” Trump’s healthy wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina are the kind of victories that make for a winning nominee. But as a practical matter, there may be hope. Can Trump reach 50 percent? Is he the second choice for any Republican voters? As candidates continue to fold, who will their supporters turn to?
My predictor is thoroughly broken these days, but I suspect very few Republican voters whose candidate has dropped out or may drop out soon are particularly open to considering Trump as an alternative at this point. After all, if your first choice was Bush, it seems highly unlikely your second choice would be Trump. Perhaps I’m biased by my own wishes, but maybe Trump has peaked, and as we get down to a two-person race, another candidate will be able to consolidate enough votes to overcome Trump.
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