Cruz made it clear early in the process that the South would be central to his strategy. “I view the SEC primary as a firewall,” he told a gathering of Koch network donors in August. He then embarked on a bus tour of the South…

“Super Tuesday, we’ve been building for this day the entire time,” Roe told reporters. “We said this on the first day the campaign started. We walked off the stage at Liberty University and we said look we’re going to do well in February, we need to do well in the first four states — I would consider what we’ve done so far as doing well — and then we’re going to have a big night on March 1st in an electoral map that favors us.”…

Potentially even more troubling to Cruz’s path is the fact that he doesn’t appear to have as much crossover appeal as hoped outside his base, indicating that his ultraconservative message has a limited ceiling of support among less conservative voters, and doesn’t seem to be winning over non-ideological Trump voters. The same CNN exit poll showed him only winning 13% of non-evangelicals. Cruz often talks about bringing back together a “Reagan coalition” of evangelicals, libertarians, conservatives, and Reagan Democrats, and the campaign has touted his third-place finish in New Hampshire as evidence that the candidate can compete nationally.

Roe told reporters that all the candidates were stealing from each other’s lanes, including Cruz. “People are renting each other’s voters for a little while. This will all shake out,” Roe said.