The polls are clear: Donald Trump will win tomorrow’s South Carolina GOP primary. Moreover, he is likely to do so by a substantial margin, one that will give him all 50 of the Palmetto State’s delegates. It will be the first strong punch landed by any candidate, and one which clearly establishes Trump as the man to beat.

As with the other races, Trump’s victory will come from a coalition built across the GOP’s traditional ideological divides. He polls first among moderates, first among “somewhat conservatives,” and a very close second to Ted Cruz among “very conservatives,” Evangelicals, and Tea Partiers. He leads substantially among those who say this will be their first GOP primary vote ever, which would be consistent with the data from the two exit polls we have from Iowa and New Hampshire. Trump seems to be attracting the “casual conservative,” the person who thinks they are a conservative but are clearly not an ideological or movement conservative, to cast ballots for him and for him alone.

The real battle will come down ballot.