Why Bernie Sanders wins even if he loses

In the summer of 1988, Dukakis would have preferred to focus on beating George H.W. Bush rather than keeping Jackson in the fold. The process exposed party divisions and became fodder for conservatives. Dukakis was soon to be hammered as a “liberal” by Republicans and beaten in a landslide. He was arguably hurt from the left as well. Dukakis’ aides later groused that Jackson’s provocations contributed to a 4.3 percent drop in black turnout from the previous presidential election.

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Hillary Clinton, assuming she’s the nominee, would also want to spend her summer positioning herself for the general election. The Republican primary has been a circus, with polls already indicating that swing voters are turned off by the spectacle. Clinton ideally would pivot from the debate over who is the true “progressive” and target those voters as soon as possible. But a delegate-rich Sanders would likely keep Clinton busy catering to the concerns of him and his base.

To really dominate the proceedings, Sanders would need more than Jackson’s 26 percent of the delegates. A total closer to 40 percent would allow Sanders to claim representation of an ascendant progressive populist wing of the party. Sanders supporters, either taking his cue or acting on their own, could easily use the convention run-up to demand he or his fellow traveler Sen. Elizabeth Warren be nominated for vice president in order to make the party whole. Both options would be fiercely resisted by Clinton, who would worry about their willingness to echo her positions and messages. A possible compromise to satisfy the populists would be Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is very close to Warren and Sanders ideologically but has endorsed Clinton and hails from the key swing state of Ohio.

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