But set those potential consumer gains aside for a moment. Even knowing what we now know about the possible impact on U.S. jobs, should Washington have somehow limited trade and overseas investment with China — even at the cost of higher global poverty? Certainly the humanitarian answer is “No.” What’s more, I’m not sure what set of plausible public policies could have significantly offset the one-time economic shock to advanced economies of hundreds of millions of low-wage workers fully entering the global trading system. There’s also a longer-term economic benefit to the U.S. and the rest of the world from poor people getting richer, healthier, more educated, and adding their brainpower to the global intellectual stock for new invention and innovation. Yet while we should take into account the well-being of non-U.S. citizens, American workers can’t be left to fend for themselves. Clearly we’ve long needed a stronger, pro-work safety net that helps the “losers” from trade through a variety of means including effective retraining, wage subsidies, and relocation assistance. While trade isn’t the zero-sum game Trump seemingly imagines, there are trade-offs.
Perhaps this is overthinking Trumpism. At last weekend’s Republican presidential debate, Trump criticized air-conditioner maker Carrier for plans to move a plant and 1,400 jobs to Mexico from Indianapolis. He also didn’t like the idea of Chinese investors buying the 134-year-old Chicago Stock Exchange, the first-ever purchase of an American exchange by a Chinese company. So Americans shouldn’t invest in other nations, and neither should they invest in us? Taken at face value, what Trump’s really arguing for is not “free trade” or “fair trade” —but no trade at all.
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