In the face of this, the Clinton campaign has pinned its hopes on two theories. The first is that Democrats will eventually settle for her. Literally: At an event in Hudson, New Hampshire, a guy on the stage behind Clinton wore a T-shirt saying “Settle for Hillary.” There were two rays of sunshine supporting this theory in the New Hampshire exit polls. The first is that Sanders and Clinton were neck and neck among registered Democrats— 49 percent each. The second is that 62 percent of the voters said they’d be satisfied if Clinton wins the nomination. (To put this in context, 50 percent of New Hampshire Republican voters said they’d be satisfied if Trump wins the nomination.)
The other theory of the Clinton campaign is salvation at the hands of black and Hispanic voters. They assume, as a matter of course, that Sanders will not perform well with blacks and Hispanics and that Clinton’s margins with these groups will be enough to drag her to the nomination, eventually.
This theory will be tested, first at the Nevada caucus on February 20 and then a week later in South Carolina’s primary. Clinton thinks she can re-assemble her 2008 coalition, but with the addition of Obama’s minority voters. If she does, she will win comfortably. But the numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire suggest Clinton has lost a great deal of support from 2008. Gone are her “moderate” supporters— the Jacksonian Democrats of Kentucky and Pennsylvania who powered her to victories in Appalachia. Splitting minority voters with Sanders won’t be enough for Clinton; she’ll have to win them decisively. And even then, the delegate race will be a close-run thing.
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