Scalia’s death should result in an extraordinary amount of money being spent in Senate races to determine the chamber’s control. But it’s not like these races were going to be conducted on the cheap previously. Also, it’s not clear that control of the chamber is the central problem here. Senate leaders might be able to get away with blocking a SCOTUS pick for 11 months; four years is a whole different order. Senate control will affect the gradient of ideology that the next president is allowed to get away with. That’s not nothing. But it’s not the whole ballgame.

Does this stonewalling help Democrats in November? Republicans blocking a Supreme Court nomination would allow Democrats to portray Republicans as unreasonably obstructionist, though Republicans tend to take that as a badge of honor. It could boost Democratic turnout, since they have the opportunity to retake the Supreme Court for the first time in decades, if only they vote. The counter to this is that Republicans will instruct their voters to stop Democrats from forming the first liberal Supreme Court majority in decades. If early primary voting numbers are any indication, Republicans already have the advantage in prospective enthusiasm and will use the fear of a liberal Armageddon to maintain that.

As we’re all aware, though, there’s a long way to go until the general election. This turn of events would seem to rocket “electability” to the top of primary voters’ concerns in selecting their candidates. Hillary Clinton has been dangling the Supreme Court nominations card front and center already.