If you could somehow combine Rubio’s likability and appeal to conservatives, Kasich’s policy smarts and post-New Hampshire momentum, and Bush’s war chest and organization, you’d have a pretty good candidate on your hands. But instead, these candidates are likely to spend the next several weeks sniping at one another. The circular firing squad mentality was already apparent in New Hampshire, where fewer advertising dollars were directed against Trump despite his having led all but one poll of the state since July. Trump has also been attacked less than Rubio and Cruz in recent debates.

The Republican field probably will consolidate, eventually. In about the only bad piece of news for Trump on Tuesday, it appears possible that Chris Christie will soon end his campaign. And it might not take that much to upend the stalemate between Rubio, Kasich and Bush. I’m guessing, for example, that if Rubio and Kasich had switched places on Tuesday, the national media conversation would be about how Rubio’s “3-2-1” plan was right on track and how it was time for Kasich and Bush to fold up shop. It might seem fanciful to swap the second-place and fifth-place candidates, but only about 15,000 votes separated Kasich from Rubio in New Hampshire.

By the time that consolidation happens, however, Trump and Cruz will have swept up quite a few delegates. And whichever Republican emerges from the “establishment” pack isn’t necessarily a favorite to beat Trump one-on-one (or Trump and Cruz in a three-way race). A lot of Republicans would never consider voting for Bush, in particular.