Four numbers suggest why Trump is still the favorite in New Hampshire


The prevailing wisdom is that New Hampshire is more favorable to Rubio than Cruz, the latter of whom appealed to a culturally conservative Iowa electorate that doesn’t resemble the one in New Hampshire. Even if that’s the case, Cruz has emerged as a clear alternative to Trump, and he’s been part of the logjam in the Granite State vying for second place in the polls. It stands to reason that Cruz will be a major challenger for the nomination, and that he could benefit from the same kind of post-Iowa “momentum” that favors Rubio.

It’s worth looking, then, at how past Iowa caucus winners have fared in the New Hampshire primary. I’ve added Democratic results, just for the sake of displaying the additional data. (The differences between GOP voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are not the same as those of Democratic voters.)

Simply put, it takes another formula—and perhaps another kind of candidate—to win in Iowa than it does in New Hampshire. George W. Bush, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum were the past three Republican victors in the Hawkeye State, and all three were very conservative, deeply religious Christians. Contrast that with the winners of the last three contested New Hampshire primaries, John McCain and Mitt Romney. The former sported his reputation as a “maverick”. The latter was a pro-choice politician once upon a time.