Iowa: Trump 27, Cruz 26, Rubio 22

For Trump, the results represent a 6-point drop in just 10 days. In an Emerson poll released on January 21, Trump won 33% of the vote. His decline appears to be Rubio’s gain; during the same 10-day period, Rubio was up 8 points from 14%.

The poll found that Trump’s decision to skip the last Republican debate had a negative impact on his support. Nearly four out of 10 likely GOP caucus participants (39%) said they were less likely to vote for Trump as a result of the boycott, while 14% said his absence made it more likely they would vote for him. Fifty-two percent (52%) said it would have no impact on their vote.

“Since our January 21 poll, Trump’s favorability has decreased by 10 points,” said
ECPS data analyst Matt Couture. “His decision to skip the debate seems to be a factor in this decrease.”