There’s a perception that Marco Rubio is locked into third place in the Iowa caucuses, behind (in some order) Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. But that’s not necessarily true. Rubio’s pretty clearly in third place in the polls now, but the polls are often pretty far off in Iowa, and a lot can change at the last minute, especially with so many candidates still in the running. Our primary forecast models estimate not just the chance of a candidate winning, but also finishing in second or third. According to the polls-only version of our forecast, Rubio has a 41 percent chance of finishing in third place. But he also has a 25 percent chance of finishing higher than third, and a 33 percent chance of finishing fourth or worse.