New Hampshire: Trump 26, Kasich 15, Cruz 15, Bush 10, Rubio 7

Same goes for Kasich on the Republican side. Koczela says if lots of independents show up, including those more moderate fence-sitters, Kasich is basically tied with Trump among independents, 19 to 20 percent — and he’s 6 points ahead of Jeb Bush and 7 points ahead of Ted Cruz.

That could provide a huge boost to Kasich’s campaign. On the other hand, Kozcela explained: “If you have only the most conservative of the independents show up that day, there you have Donald Trump with quite a considerable lead over John Kasich.”

In that scenario, Trump beats Kasich by 15 points.

So Kasich and Sanders both want independents to choose their respective party’s ballot — which means, in a sense, they’re running against each other.