“Probably 15 to 20 percent of the people who caucus. I’d say 15 to 20 percent would identify themselves as Tea Partiers more than anything else, such as born-again evangelicals.”

“And you would expect that some of them are caught on the fence now between Trump and Cruz?”

“I know for a fact that they are,” Johnson replied. “I’ve talked to several people in the last two months who have been on the fence between Trump and Cruz. So if they’re on the fence, this might be just enough to push them over.”

Indeed, at Trump and Cruz events in the last two weeks, I have met plenty of people who were for Trump, with Cruz as their second choice, or were for Cruz, with Trump as their second choice. For some of them, Palin’s seal of approval might make some difference. Before she spoke, I asked several people at the Ames rally whether Palin had worn out her welcome; none thought she had.