Why Nevada matters in 2016

Much has been written about how Nevada is Rubio’s firewall — he used to live in Las Vegas and used to be a Mormon, you know! And when peripatetic Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison is not filing school choice lawsuits to get his name in the paper, he’s helming the Rubio Nevada campaign, signaling LDS strength that is bolstered by many Mormon elected and non-elected endorsements.

The Mormon vote was a quarter of the 2012 turnout, but without favorite son Romney, will it be that significant? Maybe.

Cruz came into Nevada later than Rubio, but he is well-organized now and his supporters may be the most fervent. And I would not be surprised to see Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who has assumed the mantle of Conservative Chief in Nevada, sign onto Team Cruz.

As for Bush, the question is not how well organized he is – his infrastructure may be the best of any of them – but whether he will be around come Feb. 23. His team knows how to win this caucus – Ryan Erwin led Romney’s victory here – and if he can survive past South Carolina, he has a chance here.