Why Donald Trump is (still) the GOP front-runner

Now to the basic math. Trump consistently has around 35 percent support in polls. In New Hampshire, this means that he has a nearly 20-point lead over the rest of the field. This sounds insurmountable, right? But this number also means 65 percent of Republicans aren’t backing Trump. Some of this 65 percent are backing someone else, some haven’t made up their minds — either way, they aren’t with him.

If the Republican race were immediately to become a two-person contest between Trump and someone else, it is logical to assume that the other person would have more support…

The math gets more complicated — and interesting — after the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.

In the first two weeks of March, nearly half of the nation — including Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine — will hold either a primary or caucus in which delegates are distributed proportionally. Unless all but one or two candidates are significant factors, Trump could rack up delegates in this period taking full advantage of the splintered anti-Trump vote.

If Republicans want to defeat Trump, then many of the candidates will have to make some tough decisions before March 1.