In Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 1, Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump by four points among likely caucus-goers, 28 percent to 24 percent – within the poll’s margin of error of plus-minus 4.6 percentage points. They’re followed by Marco Rubio at 13 percent and Ben Carson at 11 percent. No other Republican candidate gets more than 5 percent of the vote.

Yet among the larger universe of potential Iowa caucus-goers, Trump actually leads Cruz by two points, 26 percent to 24 percent, suggesting that a larger turnout could benefit Trump in the state. (Back in October’s NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, Trump was at 24 percent among potential caucus-goers, Carson at 19 percent, and Cruz and Rubio at just 6 percent.)…

In New Hampshire, which holds its presidential primaries on Feb. 9, Trump gets support from 30 percent of likely Republican primary voters.

He’s followed by Marco Rubio at 14 percent, Chris Christie at 12 percent, Ted Cruz at 10 percent, and John Kasich and Jeb Bush tied at 9 percent each.

That means that the four Republicans vying in the establishment lane of the GOP contest – Rubio, Christie, Kasich and Bush – are dividing up 44 percent of the total vote, according to the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll.